9.3.1. Initial Market Projection¶
MUSE needs an initial projection of the market prices for each period of the simulation.
The price trajectory is needed if the MCA works in equilibrium mode as an initial trajectory for the base year of the simulation. The market will override the calculated prices obtained from each commodity equilibrium for all the future periods following the base year (setting market keyword equilibrium = true)
Similarly, if the market works in a carbon budget mode, the prices are used as a starting point. The only difference from the previous case is given by the fact that the MCA will be calculating an additional global market price for carbon dioxide (and additional pollutants if required)
If the MCA works in an exogenous mode (setting market keyword equilibrium = false or maximum_iterations = 1), it will use the initial market projection as the projection for the the base year and all the future periods of the simulation
By default, MUSE works in equilibrium mode with a number of iterations greater than 1. These are the typical conditions for a complete simulations with multiple sectors, belonging to the supply and the demand. In this way the iterative methods for the market converges can have a meaningful application. While global settings files, such as the initial price file as well as the commodidity definition files need to refer to all the commodities present in all the sectors, each sector allows a definition of the sector-specific attribute referring just to commodities either consumed or produced in the same sector.
As MUSE allows 1 sector model simulations, the market convergence settings could be conveniently modified into equilibrium = false and setting maximum_iterations = 1).
The forward price trajectory should follow the structure reported in the table below.
RegionName |
Attribute |
Time |
com1 |
com2 |
com3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Unit |
Year |
MUS$2010/PJ |
MUS$2010/PJ |
MUS$2010/PJ |
|
region1 |
CommodityPrice |
2010 |
20 |
1.9583 |
2 |
region1 |
CommodityPrice |
2015 |
20 |
1.9583 |
2 |
region1 |
CommodityPrice |
2020 |
20.38518042 |
1.996014941 |
2.038518042 |
region1 |
CommodityPrice |
2025 |
20.77777903 |
2.034456234 |
2.077777903 |
region1 |
CommodityPrice |
2030 |
21.17793872 |
2.073637869 |
2.117793872 |
region1 |
CommodityPrice |
2035 |
21.58580508 |
2.113574105 |
2.158580508 |
region1 |
CommodityPrice |
2040 |
22.00152655 |
2.154279472 |
2.200152655 |
region1 |
CommodityPrice |
2045 |
22.42525441 |
2.195768786 |
2.242525441 |
region1 |
CommodityPrice |
2050 |
22.85714286 |
2.238057143 |
2.285714286 |
- RegionName
represents the region ID and needs to be consistent across all the data inputs
- Attribute
defines the attribute type. In this case it refers to the CommodityPrice; it is relevant only for internal use
- Time
corresponds to the time periods of the simulation; the simulated time framework in the example goes from 2010 through to 2050 with a 5-year time step
- com1, …, comN
Any further columns represent the commodities modelled, as defined in the global commodities the row Unit reports the unit in which the technology consumption is defined; it is for the user internal reference only. The names comX should be replaced with the names of the commodities.